Nigeria

The Global Center of Adaptation (GCA) is supporting the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)’s Nigeria Value Chain Program in the North (VCN) Project to promote nutrition sensitive, socially inclusive and sustainable agricultural value chain development.
Technical assistance is required to integrate climate adaptation and digitalization into key agriculture value chains, and unlock climate financing opportunities that strengthen resilience. This is where Genesis and Weather Impact step in. Our technical approach follows the IPCC Climate Risk Framework to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of crops and associated value chains in Northern Nigeria. Through a number of desk researches, stakeholder engagements and capacity development sessions, we will help integrate digital tools and services, promoting financial inclusion and climate-smart agriculture.

Together, we aim to equip IFAD and key stakeholders with the insight, strategies, and skills to implement resilient climate adaptation strategies, mobilize financing, and implement digital solutions that drive improved agricultural production in Northern Nigeria’s agriculture value chain.

With Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments (CRAVA), we aim to present the risk assessment of maize, rice, and soybean assets in Northern Nigeria to climate hazards as indicated in the CRAVA framework, which integrates hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components. This information is provided in the form of high-resolution maps, highlighting how the climate risks intersect with the three value chains.

In below maps, several risks for the Maize value chain are showed in Northern Nigeria. By 2030, the multi-hazard risk map reveals striking patterns of intensification and relief across the Northern Nigeria’s maize belt. The largest risk increases (warm colors) appear in central Jigawa, northern Bauchi and Katsina.

Fig. 1 Change in future climate risk (relative to historical period) to the maize value chain in Northern Nigeria for 2030. a) Multi-hazard, b) Wet-season drought, c) Wet-season heat stress, and d) Flood. 

Fragility maps show regions where high climate risk overlaps with high poverty and/or high insecurity. Including these important socio-economic elements completes the risk methodology. See example below.

1. Risk + Insecurity (red, mostly in Yobe region) marks areas where climate risks overlap with shocks in labor, prices, or consumption. In these areas, focus should be on stabilizing markets and ensuring access to services (e.g., reliable transport, price monitoring, and safety nets that respond to shocks).
2. Risk + Poverty (blue, mostly in Katisina-Kano-Jigawa (northern Bauchi) belt) highlights places where chronic poverty makes losses worse. Here, income diversification, farm input support, extension services, and financial inclusion should be prioritized.
3. Risk + Insecurity + Poverty (yellow, in Yobe only for maize and rice, because there is no soybean production in Yobe) signals deep systemic fragility. In these areas, interventions should cover the whole value chain (input delivery, storage, logistics, market access) and be closely coordinated with humanitarian actors.

Fig. 2 These fragility maps for Maize, Rice and Soybean show where regions with high climate risk overlap with high poverty or high insecurity or both. Meaning higher vulnerability and a need for stronger support and risk-management.